Where Is The Compute?

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Follow the watts: capacity over time

Forecasts ≠ installed
AI data-center capacity over time (GW), through 2030OpenAI: 2023 0.2 GW (actual), 2024 0.6 GW (actual), 2025 1.9 GW (actual), 2026 5–6 GW (forecast), 2027 ≥10 GW (forecast); announced undated ~30 GW total commitments (≈$1.4T), undated. Anthropic: 2025 1.4 GW (estimate), 2026 5–6 GW (forecast); announced undated ≥14.8 GW signed Oct 2025–Sep 2026 (+1–2 GW earlier), delivery over several years. Meta (Prometheus + Hyperion only): 2026 1 GW (forecast), 2030 3 GW (forecast); announced undated Prometheus ~1 GW + Hyperion up to 5 GW 'over several years'05101520253020232024202520262027202820292030GW (linear) · solid = disclosed · dashed = estimate/forecast · amber = range · arrow = floor · right = announced, undatedAnnounced, undated →OpenAI ≥10~30Anthropic 5–6≥14.8Meta* 33–6
Year-end GW where a dated figure exists. Solid line = company-disclosed; dashed = estimate or forecast; amber bars = published range; arrow = floor (“at least”). Hatched columns on the right are announced totals with no delivery date: they are not plotted against any year.
Show data table
AI data-center capacity by year (GW) and announced undated totals
Company20232024202520262027202820292030Announced, undated
OpenAI0.2 (actual)0.6 (actual)1.9 (actual)5–6 (forecast)≥10 (forecast)———~30 GW total commitments (≈$1.4T), undated
Anthropic——1.4 (estimate)5–6 (forecast)————≥14.8 GW signed Oct 2025–Sep 2026 (+1–2 GW earlier), delivery over several years
Meta (Prometheus + Hyperion only)———1 (forecast)———3 (forecast)Prometheus ~1 GW + Hyperion up to 5 GW 'over several years'

Sources: Epoch AI, “Introducing the AI Chip Users Explorer” (2026-09-09); Epoch AI (Gradient Updates, opinion), “Frontier labs don't use most AI compute (yet)” (2026-05-20); Meta Careers blog, “Why networking infrastructure is critical for AI innovation” (2025); TechCrunch, “Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is building a 5GW AI data center” (2025-07-14); Axios, “OpenAI wants to get to $1 trillion a year in infrastructure spend, Altman says” (2025-10-28); DatacenterDynamics, “Anthropic signed $517bn in compute agreements in past 11 months” (2026-09-07)

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