Sources, verification & discrepancy log
Every figure on this site traces to a row in data/compute.json with its value, range, unit, as-of date, confidence and source. Figures from Iggy’s source doc were re-checked against the cited sources on 2026-10-20. Where they differ, we log it here instead of quietly changing it.
Discrepancy log
| # | Item | Doc says | Source says | How we handle it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Colossus 2 in H100e | ~550,000 GB200/GB300 deployed (~1.4M H100e) | State of AI gives the 550,000 GPU count only (no H100e). Epoch (May 2026) says xAI is 'targeting a major expansion of Colossus 2 to around 1.4 million H100e' — i.e. a target, not the deployed figure. | Site charts GPU counts; the 1.4M H100e figure is shown only as a flagged note. |
| D2 | Parent-company ownership, Q1 2026 | Google ~5.5M (~31%), Microsoft ~3.3M, Meta ~2.0M, Amazon ~1.5M, Oracle ~1.1M as of Q1 2026 | Numbers match Epoch's table exactly, but the same page says 'Q1 2026 data is excluded as it was not yet finalized' and its headline uses Q4 2025 (Google 5.0M / 24.8%). Q1 2026 Amazon (1.5M vs 2.5M) and Meta (2.0M vs 2.3M) are lower than Q4 2025, which suggests incomplete preliminary data. | Q1 2026 shown as in doc, labeled preliminary, with Q4 2025 values plotted alongside. |
| D3 | Google share of global compute | ~31% of global AI compute | 31.0% in Epoch's preliminary Q1 2026 row; ~25% (24.8%) at end-2025, which Epoch's text uses ('around a quarter'). | Both shown. |
| D4 | OpenAI future capacity | Roughly 30 GW by 2030 through Stargate | Altman (Oct 28, 2025): ~$1.4T committed ≈ ~30 GW across all partners (AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, Oracle, …). Stargate itself is the $500B / 10 GW program. No 2030 date in the coverage we found. | Shown as '~30 GW total commitments (all partners)'; '2030' flagged as unverified timing. |
| D5 | Meta Superintelligence Labs compute | ~996K in table; '1.00M' in doc chart | 996,000 (90% CI 606,000–1,638,000) | Uses 996,000. |
| D6 | Anthropic $517B | ~14.8 GW / ~$517B in capacity deals over 11 months | Matches The Information's tally (via DCD/Dealroom summaries; original paywalled). It is a reporter tally, not a company disclosure. Reuters on the IPO prospectus: 'at least $518 billion' over a decade, ~80% non-cancelable. | Both figures shown with provenance. |
| D7 | Prometheus ~1 GW | ~1 GW | Oct 19, 2026 Meta post calls it 'gigawatt-scale' and gives no exact GW; Meta's 2025 statements targeted 1 GW by end-2026. | Shown as ~1 GW (announced target). |
Couldn’t verify
- OpenAI 'Introducing dots' (Sept 29, 2026) — openai.com blocked automated fetch (403). Only used in the speculation section.
- Doc's 'Michael Parekh summary' of The Information — Not located; verified the same figures through DCD and Dealroom summaries instead.
- Timing '2030' for OpenAI's ~30 GW — Not found in Axios/Reuters coverage of Altman's statement.
- Prometheus deployed GPU count — Meta says only 'hundreds of thousands'; no exact number exists publicly.
Sources
- Introducing the AI Chip Users Explorer — Epoch AI, 2026-09-09. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Data on AI chip users — Epoch AI, 2026-09-09. Checked 2026-10-20.
- AI chip users — methodology — Epoch AI, 2026-09-09. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Five hyperscalers now own over two-thirds of global AI compute — Epoch AI, 2026-04-14. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Who has the largest GPU cluster in this index? — State of AI Report Compute Index (Nathan Benaich, Air Street Capital), 2026-10-01. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Inside Prometheus: Meta's Journey to a Gigawatt-Scale Supercluster — Meta Engineering, 2026-10-19. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Why networking infrastructure is critical for AI innovation — Meta Careers blog, 2025. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is building a 5GW AI data center — TechCrunch, 2025-07-14. Checked 2026-10-20.
- How Anthropic Clinched $517 Billion in Compute Deals in 11 Months — The Information (paywalled), 2026-09-06. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Anthropic signed $517bn in compute agreements in past 11 months — DatacenterDynamics, 2026-09-07. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Anthropic's $518 billion AI buildout hinges largely on deals that cannot be canceled, filing shows — Reuters (via Investing.com), 2026-09-29. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Higher usage limits for Claude and a compute deal with SpaceX — Anthropic, 2026-05-06. Checked 2026-10-20.
- OpenAI wants to get to $1 trillion a year in infrastructure spend, Altman says — Axios, 2025-10-28. Checked 2026-10-20.
- OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites — OpenAI, 2025-09-23. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Introducing Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full: Frontier Models for Agents — Meta, 2026-10-12. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Introducing dots — OpenAI, 2026-09-29. Checked 2026-10-20 (page blocked automated fetch; not independently verified).
- Introducing Grok Bot — xAI / SpaceX, 2026-08-11. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Claude release notes — Anthropic, 2026. Checked 2026-10-20.
- The Gemini app becomes more agentic, delivering proactive, 24/7 help — Google, 2026-05-19. Checked 2026-10-20.
- Personalized AI companion app Dot is shutting down — TechCrunch, 2025-09-05. Checked 2026-10-20.
Data
Free sample CSV (compute used by lab). The full data pack is part of the Compute Brief. Epoch AI data is CC BY 4.0 — please credit Epoch AI.